The Confidence Curve

This informal CPD article ‘The Confidence Curve’ was provided by Hanover Search Group, an organisation with deep functional knowledge of asset and wealth management, banking, fintech, healthcare & wellness, insurance, private equity, technology and professional services.

Confidence is often mistaken for charisma. The loudest voice in the room, the firmest handshake, the one who speaks without hesitation. But often real confidence, the kind that changes how we lead, is quieter than that. It’s not bravado. It’s belief. The quiet conviction that you can step forward, even when the path isn’t clear.

The curve we don’t talk about

When we picture confidence, we may often imagine a straight line, but confidence isn’t like this. For many of us, it feels more like a curve. Early in our careers, we often step forward quickly, we try things, learn fast, and don’t yet know what we “should” be afraid of.

Then comes the middle stretch of a career: more complexity, broader scope, higher expectations. It’s here that confidence often dips. Not because we’re less capable, but because we’re finally aware of just how much there is to hold. It’s also the point where many people feel most like an imposter.

This pattern isn’t unusual. Research on self-efficacy shows that confidence naturally fluctuates as new challenges stretch our skills and as we reinterpret what success requires1. Career development theories also highlight predictable mid-career reassessment - a period where people question direction, identity and capability before confidence stabilises again2.

In other words: the dip is not a failure. It’s a normal recalibration as our world expands and we learn to trust ourselves at a deeper level. The key isn’t avoiding the dip. It’s learning how to climb out of it stronger.

Confidence is built, not found

One of the biggest myths about confidence is that it’s innate. That some people are just born with it. In reality, it’s something we build, lose, rebuild and refine over time. And we can feel confident in one area of life or work and not another.

Confidence grows through three catalysts:

  • Feedback, which helps us see our progress;
  • Reflection, which turns experience into learning; and
  • Sponsorship, which amplifies belief when our own runs low.

The confidence equation isn’t equal

Confidence also doesn’t show up the same way for everyone. Gender and cultural norms shape how we express it and how others interpret it.

For instance, research shows that women consistently underestimate their performance, even when objective assessments show they outperform men across key leadership behaviours. Meanwhile, men often overestimate their performance, even when ratings are lower3,4. Studies also suggest that workplaces frequently reward the signals of confidence e.g. being vocal, quick, or assertive, rather than confidence grounded in competence5.

Culture adds another layer. In many Western contexts, confidence is associated with directness and decisiveness. In more collectivist cultures, confidence is expressed through humility, thoughtful contribution, and respect for group harmony. As recent research highlights, this means some leaders, especially women or those from culturally diverse backgrounds, are seen as “less confident” simply because they express confidence differently6.

That’s why inclusive leadership is essential. It creates space for different confidence styles and reminds us that quiet conviction can be just as powerful as vocal certainty.

Three small ways to rebuild belief. If you find your confidence wavering, start small.

  • Seek feedback – Ask for feedback from someone who sees you clearly. Often, others spot strengths we’ve stopped noticing.
  • Revisit your wins – Write down five things you’ve done recently that you’re proud of. It’s not indulgent; it’s data. Confidence grows when evidence replaces assumption.
  • Borrow belief – When you can’t find your own, lean on someone else’s belief in you. A mentor, a sponsor, a colleague. Sometimes we need to hear “I believe in you” before we can say it to ourselves.

Why this matters now

In times of change, confidence is often the first thing to wobble and the last thing to return. But leaders who intentionally nurture belief in themselves and in others create something far stronger than certainty. They create courage. Because confidence isn’t about being flawless. It’s about stepping forward even when you can’t see the entire path yet.

And perhaps that’s the real work of leadership: Helping people believe in what they can’t currently see, including themselves. So take the next step. Believe a little more boldly.
And help someone else do the same.

We hope this article was helpful. For more information from Hanover Search Group, please visit their CPD Member Directory page. Alternatively, you can go to the CPD Industry Hubs for more articles, courses and events relevant to your Continuing Professional Development requirements.

References

  1. Bandura, A. (1986). Social Foundations of Thought and Action: A Social Cognitive Theory. Prentice-Hall.
  2. Super, D. E. (1990). A Life-Span, Life-Space Approach to Career Development. In D. Brown & L. Brooks (Eds.), Career Choice and Development.
  3. Folkman, J., & Zenger, J. (2021, September 16). The Confidence Gap in Men and Women: How to Overcome It. Zenger Folkman.https://zengerfolkman.com/articles/the-confidence-gap-in-men-and-women-how-to-overcome-it/
  4. Kay, K., & Shipman, C. (2014). The Confidence Gap. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/05/the-confidence-gap/359815/
  5. Carlin, B. A. (2018). Bridging the Gender Gap in Confidence. MIT Sloan Management Review. ScienceDirect
  6. IMD Insights. (2023). Unlocking Confidence: Strategies to Help Women Thrive as Leaders. IMD.org